Is This the Ferentz Era Low Point?
The 2012 Iowa football team is 4-6 heading into its last two games of the season. It’s been a trying campaign, to say the least. But is this the low point of the Ferentz era as it relates to on field production? Could this season wind up comparing to Kirk Ferentz’s first and second years at Iowa, a time when the talent cupboard was pretty bare?
First, let’s baseline some things. Here is a glance at Iowa’s national statistical rankings through 10 games in 2012: 
Those are some pretty sobering and scary numbers/rankings when compared to the rest of college football. Iowa’s total offense ranking puts them ahead of just eight other teams that play in BCS conferences.
How does this year’s offensive output compare to some of the most challenged offensive teams from the Kirk Ferentz era?
It can be difficult to compare teams to past years, because of how much the game changes over the course of time. The game of college football is in the midst of a significant offensive transition, so to compare numbers from 2012 to 1999 doesn’t make a great deal of sense, though the numbers are still frightening for the current state of affairs.
There are 120 teams in the FBS this year and Iowa’s total offense ranking is 106th. Last week, Iowa was 103rd. 106 divided by 120 is .8833, or flipped around means Iowa is in the bottom 11.7% of offenses in the FBS. Here is how the most challenged Ferentz era offenses ranked compared to the rest of the teams in the FBS for the years listed:
2007: 109 out of 119, bottom 8.4%
2004: 101 out of 117, bottom 13.7%
2000: 99 out of 114, bottom 13.2%
1999: 97 out of 114, bottom 14.9%
While statistics do not tell the entire story, these numbers do not provide much comfort for fans of the Iowa program, as Kirk Ferentz is in his 14th year as head coach and this season’s raw offensive statistical production is fighting off the 2007 season for the worst of the Ferentz era. Iowa also surrendered nearly 50 sacks in 2007 whereas they have allowed 19 through 10 games this year.
Iowa is converting just 36.05% of its third downs this year, whereas in 2007 they converted just 31.55%. Iowa is averaging 20.8 points per game this year, whereas in 2007 they averaged 18.50. However if you take away the four touchdowns the defense has scored this year, Iowa is averaging less than 19 points per game and the Big Ten was a lot tougher in 2007 than it is this year.
That’s the scariest part in all of this; the Big Ten in 2012 is not good. It ‘might’ be the fourth or fifth best league, depending on how you would rate it when compared to the ACC.
Iowa’s offensive statistics are made worse when you consider they have yet to play a ranked opponent through their first ten games; Michigan and Nebraska will be the only two ranked teams Iowa will see this season.
The first ten games of 2012 have come against the easiest slate of any team a Kirk Ferentz team has played against and their offensive statistics through ten games are in a battle for the worst of the Ferentz era.
Should something like this happen in year 14 of a coaching regime whose coach has eight years remaining on his contract? Putting my personal respect & admiration for Kirk Ferentz aside, the answer to that question is no.
But it gets worse; Iowa has played against the two worst rushing defenses in the Big Ten the last two weeks and it failed to gain 100 yards on the ground. The past three weeks, Iowa has played against the 10th, 12th and 11th ranked total defenses in the Big Ten and put up just 336, 345 and 264 total yards, an average of 315. Those teams have allowed an average 414.66 yards per game.
Iowa is last in the Big Ten and 113th in the nation in redzone touchdown percentage.
Were it not for Illinois, Iowa would have the worst offense in the Big Ten.
Toss this into the mix; Iowa is 12th in the nation in turnover margin and 6th in the nation in fewest turnovers lost.
After the game, Kirk Ferentz said “It’s not like this has just been a dog crap team.” I’d never use such terminology to describe a team even if I thought they were in line with the chosen adjective. That said, this Iowa team has lost to Central Michigan, Northwestern, Indiana and Purdue in the same season. It lost a 9-6 game against a 5-5 Iowa State team, the first time an Iowa team has held an opponent to under 10 points and lost since 1980.
I would guess that Kirk Ferentz is saying that his team is not ‘bad’ when he says they haven’t been a ‘dog crap team’, but their record against those five teams is 0-5 and their offensive and defensive production supports that this might be his worst team at Iowa.
To make that leap, we now turn our attention to the Iowa defense.
Back on March 20th of 2012, I made this post on the message boards:
The 2012 Iowa defense is going to approach 2000 levels. This group is in a rebuilding mode, not reloading. The attrition they have had up front is coming home to roost this year and it’s going to be painful. That bill was going to come due, and this is the year of the payment.
Iowa may have to be more aggressive on offense than Kirk typically likes to have a chance to win games this year, because the defense is not going to do it. I think after the 2012 season ends, we’ll look back fondly at the 2011 numbers, which are the ‘worst’ of the KF era outside of 1999 and 2000.
That said, I see a brighter 2013, where the DL starts to resemble its old self. Hopefully one of the young safeties can channel his inner Bob Sanders in run support next year, as Iowa is really, really going to need it.
So, no calls for Phil Parker’s head. You can see this train coming down the track in March. Heck, you could hear the whistle blowing back in January.
In 2000, Iowa’s defense allowed:
440 yards per game. It will not be that bad. Was 378 in 2011
27.50 points per game…I think it could be like that. It was 23.85 in 2011
194 rushing yards per game…I could see 175+ in 2012. It was 156 in 2011
While Iowa’s 2012 season totals won’t be as challenged as the 2000 defense was, their averages through six Big Ten games are nearly there.
Yards allowed per game: 421 and Iowa still faces two of the most high powered offenses in the conference
Rushing yards allowed per game: 182.2 and Iowa faces two more dangerous running teams
Scoring Defense: 24.3 and I would guess Michigan and Nebraska will each hang at least 30 on Iowa
Iowa is 111th in the nation in sacks this year (3rd worst among all BCS conference schools) and 92nd in tackles for loss. We knew some bills were going to come due this year for all of the attrition Iowa had suffered along the defensive line, so these results are not all that surprising to me; I said and wrote all summer that I would take the production of the 2011 Iowa defense, which was the worst in the last decade, sight unseen instead of the unknown of 2012.
Iowa has had some bad offenses before in the Ferentz era, but seldom has been the year when Iowa’s defense was also severely challenged. This would be one of those years. I’ve told you before that in the six years where a Kirk Ferentz team won eight or more games, the defense ranked in the Top 10 nationally in either rushing defense or scoring defense. When it hasn’t ranked at least that high in one of those categories, Iowa has won less than eight games.
So is this the worst team of the Ferentz era? I suspect this year’s team could beat the 1999 team but I don’t think it would beat the 2000 team given how that squad played in November. I think the 2007 team would beat this year’s Iowa team as the 2007 scoring defense was ranked 12th in the nation and that crew was 24th in the nation in rushing defense.
One thing to add here and it’s not insignificant; the injuries Iowa suffered against Penn State continue to haunt this year’s team. Losing Brandon Scherff for the season was a crippling loss for this club and losing Andrew Donnall a few plays later was also tough.
Losing Scherff, who was playing at a high level and was one of the Big Ten’s best left tackles, meant that Matt Tobin had to move to left tackle. Tobin was playing the best football of his career at left guard but there has been an enormous drop off in production at left tackle from Scherff to Tobin. There has been a significant drop off at left guard from the level Tobin was playing at. Donnall was starting to play at a respectable level at right guard, a level not returned to since his loss. Add to this that Brad Rogers has missed the last two games and he is one of Iowa’s best blockers in the running game. Mark Weisman has also not been healthy since the end of regulation against Michigan State.
None of this is to say that Iowa’s offense was doing great things through that Michigan State game, because they weren’t. That said, I think a healthy Scherff makes a big difference in the outcomes of back to back three point losses against two of the worst rushing defenses in the Big Ten and nation.
Yet we are talking about the game of football and all teams are injured at this point in time. Iowa’s margin for error is typically razor thin and this year too many chickens have come home to roost, beginning with the massive flame out that is the Signing Class of 2008 and then the injuries that have hit in places where Iowa could not afford them to hit.
What is the prognosis going forward?
The hope is that the young players seeing action this fall will be able to grow exponentially for next year. I think we’ll see the defense play at a higher level next year than this year. The good news in Iowa’s horrible offensive production this year is that it really can’t get much worse.
Those are not warm and fuzzies; nothing to really hang your hat on there but hope.
So is this the low point of the Ferentz era? I am certain Kirk would say no, because coaches view these things differently. I think Kirk would say the loss at Minnesota in 2006 would still rank as the bottom for his own personal reasons. That was the ‘fat cats’ season, if you recall.
After the Purdue loss, Ferentz cited how his team didn’t quit and never stopped fighting. Those are the things coaches look for and why I don’t think he’d say this was the low point.
But outside the coaching bubble, this seems like this season is near the bottom as it relates to purely football results. If it’s not the bottom, then perhaps we’ll discover it these next two weeks against the Wolverines and Cornhuskers.
Here are some Sunday ruminations from our resident football specialist, HawkeyeGameFilm:
On Iowa’s biggest play of the 1st half, 26 yard gain to Derby on a PA flat play on 3rd and short, Purdue only had 10 guys on the field.
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
CJF was also open deep on that play because the player who was missing was the FS. CJF had 5+ yards on LB was trying to run w/him in man cov
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
With 0 high looks, Iowa continually tried to run the ball, or throw short. Rule of thumb: 2 high: run, 1 high: throw, 0 high: throw deep
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
On 4th & 4 play:Purdue CB was sitting w/feet in cement at 6-7 yards vs K. Davis. Let Davis eat up cushion,stayed flat footed. No fear at all
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
Got to be demoralizing to know the CB can do that& have no fear of repercussion. No vertical threat=lower % of success on short throws
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
One of the positives from this game: Frosh Tevaun Smith saw more reps. Very talented guy who has big pay ability.Bright future ahead for him
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
Some other positives from the game: Drew Ott looks to have potential. Cotton was great as a gunner again this week.
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
Purdue played a lot of Cover 3 on 3rd & long. Iowa completed a few throws against it but missed several more opportunities.
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
4th Q play where Bullock fumbled: Scheme issue. LB has 0 respect for bubble screen to slot WR, creeps inside and just levels Bullock.
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
I’ve talked about lack of constraint plays from Iowa this year and that play is a perfect example of why you need them. Keep the D honest
— Hawkeye Gamefilm (@hawkeyegamefilm) November 11, 2012
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The truly sad thing about this season is that the team is squandering an excellent turnover margin and better-than-expected defensive year. No one expected this defense to be a Top 30 scoring defense, but after 10 games, there they are. Whoever runs the offense (Davis or Ferentz) has done a horrible job scheming with the talent they have. And the issue is NOT a lack of talent — unless you think C.Michigan & Iowa St. have more talent — and they don’t.) 2007 was completely different from this year, because everyone could see that QB Christenson was the problem; as soon as Stanzi took over the following year the team immediately improved. In 2012 it’s not the QB, it’s the schemes.
The defense hasn’t played many, if any, real good offenses. NIU is 9th in the nation in scoring and Iowa held them in the teens. But ISU is 96, MN is 94, MSU is 110, CMU is 69, PSU is 68, PU is 65….the schedule Iowa had this year was one of the most manageable of my lifetime, which makes the shortcomings all the more pronounced and alarming.
Spot on analysis, as per usual. But please, enough with the “bill come due” and “chickens coming home to roost” cliches… driving me nuts! Gimme something clever!
But anyway, well done article again.