On the Record Iowa Basketball Season Prediction
Here’s my look at the 2012-2013 Iowa basketball season with game by game predictions.
NON-CONFERENCE:
11/09: Texas-Pan American (WIN)
11/12: Central Michigan (WIN) Keno Davis back in CHA
11/15: Howard (WIN) Tell him I said Hello
11/17: Gardner-Webb (WIN) Sounds like someone you hire, not play in hoops
11/20: Western Kentucky (WIN)
11/21: DePaul OR Wichita State (LOSS) Perhaps first real test of the year
11/27: at Virginia Tech (WIN) 1st true road game against gutted Hokie program
12/01: Texas A&M (Corpus Christi) (WIN)
12/04: South Dakota (WIN)
12/07: Iowa State (WIN) This should be a great game between two NCAA bubble teams
12/15: v UNI in Des Moines (LOSS) I think they will lose one of ISU or UNI
12/19: So. Carolina State (WIN)
12/22: Coppin State (WIN)
NON CONFERENCE PREDICTION: 11-2. I think they are just as good or better than every one of these opponents. Would I be shocked if they won them all? Yes and No. No because of what I just said, yes because I can’t wash last year’s Campbell loss out of my memory.
BIG TEN SLATE
12/31: Indiana (LOSS) I hope I am wrong, but the Hoosiers are better than the Hawkeyes
1/06: at Michigan (LOSS) Iowa has five wins in Ann Arbor since 1982
1/10: Michigan State (WIN) Iowa is a surprising 4-2 at home v MSU in last six CHA meetings
1/13: at Northwestern (LOSS) Iowa 1-7 in last 8 at NW, 1-6 in last overall games
1/19: Wisconsin (WIN) The 20th anniversary of Chris Streets death
1/22: at Ohio State (LOSS) Iowa 1-9 last 10 meetings, last win at OSU in 2004
1/27: at Purdue (LOSS) Iowa is better team but can’t win em all. Iowa L last 5 at PU
NOTE: The first seven games are simply a brutal stretch. You have three games against preseason Top Five teams plus two more games against teams ranked in the preseason. That said, the games at Northwestern and Purdue are winnable.
1/31: Penn State (WIN)
2/03: at Minnesota (LOSS) I think Gophers are a great defensive team, very athletic
2/06: at Wisconsin (LOSS) no sweep this year
2/09: Northwestern (WIN) Have to sweep post-Shurna Cats
2/14: at Penn State (LOSS) Iowa has lost last five at PSU. Hate that place
2/17: Minnesota (WIN) Chemistry issues hit Minnesota by this time of the year
2/21: at Nebraska (WIN) Huskers worst team in league
2/27: Purdue (WIN)
3/2: at Indiana (LOSS)
3/05: Illinois (WIN)
3/09: Nebraska (WIN)
BIG TEN RECORD: I have them at 9-9. I could see them winning at Penn State and losing at Northwestern. This also has them with an 8-1 record at home in conference play and just one home loss on the season. This adds up to at 20-11 record
Here is a path to get 10 wins in the Big Ten:
-Sweep Nebraska, Northwestern and Penn State (Six Wins)
-Split with Purdue, Wisconsin and Minnesota (Three Wins)
-Beat Illinois
That would be 10-8, but the resume wouldn’t be all that impressive as it would include just one win against a team ranked to start the year.
If Iowa goes 9-9 the way I laid out in the ‘on the record’ prediction and wins 11 or 12 games in the non-conference, they will be in the thick of an NCAA bid and would need a Big Ten tournament win to push them over the hump. I think 10-8 would be good for fifth or sixth place in the Big Ten standings. 9-9 would be sixth or seventh place, but the seventh place team from the Big Ten has a good chance of getting to the dance this year.
Again, I am not comfortable sitting here saying that I EXPECT this year’s Iowa team to make it to the NCAA tournament. I think they will be a bubble team and one with a spotty RPI ranking come March, due to their soft as butter non-conference slate.
That said, if Iowa gets to 21 or 22 regular season wins with 10 of those wins in league play, I think they will go dancing.
At 20-11 and 9-9 in league play? They’ll need to make a little noise at the Big Ten tournament.
Justin VanLaere (storminspank) will be following up with his own prediction very soon.
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