Phil Steele’s In Season Big Ten Projection
Phil Steele never shies away from predictions or projections. His magazine is full of such things each June when its released.
On Thursday he released his ‘rest of the year’ conference projections. For leagues like the Big Ten and Big 12, where they have yet to play a conference game, it’s all the more interesting.
Steele is not high on the Hawkeyes..nor the Wolverines. Here is what he is calling for the 2012 Big Ten regular season with three games worth of data to use:
Leaders
1. Purdue (7-1): Looks like my Leaders Darkhorse isn’t so dark anymore. Whatever that means.
2. Ohio State (6-2)
3. Wisconsin (4-4): Bucky may start a walk on freshman quarterback this week
4. Illinois (3-5)
5. Penn State (1-7): This is how I pegged the Nits back in August
6. Indiana (1-7): Their one win? Against Iowa.
Legends
1. Nebraska (8-0): The team who allowed more than 600 yards to a young UCLA offense?
2. Michigan State (7-1): More offensive problems than I imagined
3. Northwestern (5-3): 3-0 start and things are looking good for the Cats
4. Michigan (4-4): If Michigan loses to Notre Dame, Steele thinks they’ll be 6-6
5. Iowa (2-6): Wins against Minnesota and Penn State
6. Minnesota (0-8)
What do you think? Where do you think Steele gets it right and/or where do you disagree?
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Based on what I’ve seen so far, he might be right, however there has been improvements in every game. If the Hawks continue to improve and win their next 2 going into the bye, I’ll reserve judgement. Ferentz has always been at his best when it looks the darkest, and this is a very young team. I think they could still go anywhere from 2-6 to 8-0 but I see 4-4 as the most likely
I think Iowa is better than 2-6. And I think Michigan is better than 4-4. Not so sure Nebraska will go undefeated. That 600 yards they gave up to UCLA is a sign that UCLA’s offense is very good. Nebraska’s defense is not as bad as that one game showed. The Bruins may be young but they are very good. Purdue is on the rise but they’re not going to go 7-1. And I think Wisky might be a little better than 4-4. I predict Ohio State and Nebraska in the Big Ten title game with Ohio State winning but Nebraska gets the Rose Bowl nod due to Ohio State’s probation.
Ohio State cannot play in the B10 championship because of their probation….which means it very well could be Nebraska vs Purdue, however with the loss of Marve that’s a big “if” on Purdue. I once again think Michigan is overrated because of Denard and Nebraska is a different team without Burkhead….Both Michigan and Nebraska will struggle because they are to infatuated with the running abilities of Denard and Martinez at the heavy expense of a ridiculously underwhelming passing stats…as for Iowa we have slowly improved and have been very ugly at times however Ferentz has earned his salary by the way his teams play in October and November so I think his predictions are kind of a knee jerk reaction to a mediocre start by all all the teams in the Big 10….I think we will be 6-2 and 5-3 at worst!!!
Ferentz teams playing better in October and November is a myth. It is simply not supported by the data. Yes, some years they have gotten better and conversely, some years they have played worse. Losses to W Michigan, Minnesota (twice), Northwestern (multiple years),
Other than 2008 and ‘the run’ in 2002-04, the Hawks have tended to be just about what they always are: fairly average.
The Iowa defense is better than any team in the conference except MSU’s(which isn’t a lock either) and OSU’s. Note to Phil-this team is finding it’s way out of some transitional coaching issues and getting young players some experience but this is a team that’s going to end up being a little better than last year’s squad. Iowa teams success traditionally is predicated on strong defense and a quality OL. The defense has, overall, played surprisingly well, and the young OL is coming together. I see four conference wins for this team: Minnesota, PSU, Indiana, and Purdue(don’t buy the hype..it’s based on ND not being overrated per usual). It’s quite plausible that we could beat Northwestern too, but I’m putting that down as an “L” for right now as I believe the Northwestern jinx is almost as potent as AIRBHG’s smiting arm.
Ohio State looks about right if opponents don’t realize you have to stop Braxton, who is their entire offense. Wiscy will be at least one game better. Purdoe is tough, but will lose at least twice.
No way Nebraska goes undefeated. I think they lose at least 2 as well. I think Michigan will also be at least one game better and Michigan State will be at least one worse. Northwestern could be dangerous and I think the Hawks will win at least 5, but at worst will be 4-4. Minny will not get skunked, either.
This all reminds me of the 2008 season where we seemingly could move the ball between the 20s, but we had early season struggles punching the ball into the endzone. That year we also had a pretty young but talented D that really ended up coming around and playing really well for us. In the ’08 season, despite having what many considered a rather “easy” schedule, we still opened the season with a 3-3 record. However, we finished strong, winning 5 of our final 6 games.
In ’08 a big reason for our struggles was that we were still a bit young, and more importantly, we were breaking in a new QB. This year, while we’re not breaking in a new QB, we are breaking in a new system on O. I think that is the primary factor why our O hasn’t been performing up to our preseason predictions.
The good news is that we have a nice contrasting set of runners, when they’re healthy … and we have an OL that is improving through each and every game!
For the most part I think these are good predictions. I have been telling my friends all year here in Nebby land that I thought Purdue was going to be good. Can they stay healthy? That is what has severely held them back the last 3-4 years. They are the one team in the nation I thought could honestly compete with Iowa for most injury prone team and neither team can afford it with the lack of depth each team suits.
I also think that their is no way Minny gets KO’d all year. Kill is an excellent coach and has proven that by out-coaching our hawks the last couple years with inferior talent. We did catch a break with their athletic Qb going down.
Iowa is improving and that has always been KF’s reputation to start out slow and finish strong especially the front half of his tenure here at Iowa. Not saying we are going to go undefeated throughout but would prolly disagree with Philly boy on his Iowa and Minny predictions on this one.
It pains me to say this as I bleed black and gold. But the Hawks are GARBAGE! It has been a long time since I have seen them field such an unathletic team. They are so slow at every position. Micah Hyde is the only guy on the field that ever stands out, in a positive manner.
I have been fortunate enough to attend each of the last three Rose Bowl games Iowa earned the opportunity to play in. Based upon what I see within their current roster it will be a very long time before I will have chance to see them in another Rose Bowl.